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Recent Entries
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Matt Nelson of Tower Group was kind enough to give me permission to post his thoughtful slides on "Web 2.0/Enterprise 2.0 in the Financial Services Industry", from the recent New York Financial Markets World conference on "Web 2.0 and Enterprise 2.0 in Capital Markets." Christopher Rollyson and he briefly discussed his presentation here .
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Author: David Teten |
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A Bullish Slant from this Key Market
We recently listened to a conference call with a preeminent expert in the Indian gold market, and several of the points raised during the call merit the attention of commodity-oriented investors. Short term macro issues like the weakness of the dollar or global inflation are often cited as reasons for gold’s recent moves. We believe the Indian market is at least as important as these drivers in determining the near term future of this key commodity.
Hosted by Nitron Circle of Experts and BNY Jaywalk, the talk with the senior gold expert raised several critical points:
- India is the largest national market for gold in the world, in terms of tonnage. Recent demand growth for gold in India has been nothing short of staggering, with Q207 demand at 370 tons, up over 90% from last year. In fact, incremental demand from India represents virtually 100% of marginal global gold demand in the second quarter of 2007. Understanding the economic and social variables for Indian gold demand is therefore critical to forecasting global gold prices.
- Current market fundamentals for gold demand in India are robust. Strong economic growth and a rising currency certainly help, but it is equally important to understand the broader economic role gold plays in the country. Many deep-rooted beliefs as well as social customs serve to underpin a rise in gold demand as India’s economy continues to expand.
- Two products drive gold demand in India – investment products (bullion/coin) and jewelry. The intersection of demand for these products is the wedding season in India as well as a series of important religious festivals. Both of these start in the back half of October and run through late January. Gold plays an important role in intergenerational wealth transfer in India, and weddings and religious festivals are key points when families often hand wealth down to the next generation.
- Gold also plays an important role in India as a store of value, especially in rural farming communities. Its good price performance through recent global capital markets turmoil has served to further burnish this reputation. Banks even offer “mortgages” to buy gold, recognizing how important this investment is in Indian culture. Farmers will also use gold as a way to preserve wealth in anticipation of potentially lean times ahead.
- Indian gold merchants are sitting on seasonally peak levels of inventory in anticipation of the wedding and religious festival seasons. Banks have large stocks of bullion and coins, for the same reason. Should the imminent rush of demand not materialize in the next few weeks, both the jewelry stores and banks will have to start to unload inventory. Mitigating some of this risk is the relatively weak production profile of gold mining enterprises. Existing mines supply only a small part of the country’s overall demand, face steep cost/ounce constraints, and have long start-up phases.
We therefore believe that gold investors need to watch the Indian gold market very carefully over the next few month. With gold near multi-year highs, there is little room for disappointment in this important market.
If you would like to arrange a conference call with this expert or otherwise gain insights into the commodity markets in India, please feel free to contact the Nitron Circle of Experts.
For more information on Nitron Circle of Experts please visit www.CircleofExperts.com.
Nitron Circle of Experts is a subsidiary of Evalueserve, a leading provider of Knowledge Process Outsourcing services – custom research, analytics, and intellectual property solutions . For more information on BNY, please visit: www.BNYJaywalk.com .
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Author: David Teten |
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I’m happy to be participating at a Software and Information Industry Association lunch /webcast on October 31 in midtown New York, on "The Promises and Risks of Social Networking in the Information Industry".
The event is on “how your enterprise can profit from social networking: in promotion and marketing, in the development of new products and content creation, and even by making communities one of the services your business offers as an ancillary to content products.”
The other panelists are: Leslie Forde, VP of Strategic Alliances, Communispace;
Kim Kobza, President and CEO, Neighborhood America;
Scott Parry, General Manager, Reuters Advicepoint Karen Christensen, CEO, Berkshire Publishing Group will moderate.
Some of the questions that will be addressed include:
• How can we make our communities persistent and sustainable?
• What increases the value of a community to its participants?
• What social media are appropriate for my business?
• Does it really make sense to use existing free social networking communities like Facebook and Second Life?
• Can we develop our own unique social networking systems with open source technologies?
The event costs $50 for non-SIIA members. Alternatively, the event will be available via webcast. Register here.
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Author: David Teten |
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Christopher Rollyson took some very detailed notes on the recent New York conference on "Web 2.0 and Enterprise 2.0 in Capital Markets." They're worth reviewing.
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Author: David Teten |
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